Does fluctuating selection maintain variation in nest defense behavior in Arctic peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius)?

Behavioral expression can vary both within- (i.e., plasticity) and among-individuals (i.e., animal personality), and understanding the causes and consequences of variation at each of these levels is a major area of investigation in contemporary behavioral ecology. Here, we studied sources of variation in both plasticity and personality in nest defense behavior in Arctic peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus tundrius) in two consecutive years. We found that peregrines adjusted their nest defense in response to nesting stage and year, revealing plastic, state-dependent, adjustment of nest defense. At the same time, nest defense behavior was repeatable in peregrine falcons both within and between years. We tested if fluctuating selection on behavioral types (i.e., individuals average phenotypic expression) and/or assortative mating acted to maintain long-term among-individual differences in nest defense behavior. We found that selection on female nest defense differed across years; being positive in 1 year and negative in the other. We also found support for assortative mating in the first year, but disassortative mating in the second. We propose two potential explanations for the observed year-specific patterns of nonrandom mating: (1) year-specific plastic adjustment of nest defense and/or (2) changes in the age-structure of the breeding population. These posthoc explanations are speculative, and require further study. Unfortunately, we could not evaluate this directly with the available data, and future studies are needed with more than 2 years of data on nest-defense and fitness outcomes, and with a larger number of marked individuals, to properly evaluate these potential explanations.