Long-Term Consequences of High Polychlorinated Biphenyl Exposure: Projected Decline of Delphinid Populations in a Hotspot for Chemical Pollution

Rough-toothed dolphins, Steno bredanensis, are closely associated with coastal waters in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean, increasing the exposure to multiple stressors, such as chemical pollution. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are known to affect the health of cetacean species. To comprehend the potential impacts of POPs on populations' viability, it is necessary to distinguish populations and predict their risk of longterm exposure. Blubbers of rough-toothed dolphins (n = 28) collected along the southeastern (SE) and southern (S) Brazilian coast were screened for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides in a gas chromatograph coupled to a mass spectrometer. Based on the contamination profile, a discriminant function analysis separated the rough-toothed dolphins into three ecological populations: two coastal and one offshore. POP concentrations were the highest reported for the species worldwide and highest among the delphinids in Brazilian waters, reaching 647.9 mu g g(-1) lw for PCBs. The SE population presented 212.9 +/- 163.0, S population presented 101.0 +/- 96.7, and OCS/S population presented 183.3 +/- 85.3 mu g g(-1) lw (mean +/- SD) of PCBs. The potential risk of effects triggered by elevated PCB concentrations was assessed in an individual-based model. A risk of severe decline in population size is projected for the three populations in the next 100 years, especially in SE Brazil, varying between 67 and 99%.