The short-run effects of economic adversity on property crime: An Australian case study

Criminological theory has historically assumed that economic adversity increases crime rates because it increases the motivation to offend. This assumption appears supported in cross-sectional studies of the relationship between economic adversity and crime but time series studies have generally produced much less consistent results. Attempts to resolve this anomaly without abandoning the motivational hypothesis have met with mixed success. The purpose of this paper is to test the motivational assumption using monthly data drawn from a period during which a severe recession occurred. The results of the study do not support the motivational assumption. Alternative explanations of the aggregate-level relationship between economic adversity and property crime are canvassed.