Numerical Simulation of Possible Evolution Scenarios of the Rosone Deep-Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (Italian Alps, Piedmont)

The large, deep-seated Rosone landslide (Western Italian Alps) has been known since the beginning of the twentieth century as an active phenomenon characterized by a slow but constant evolution. Its possible evolution, in terms of a catastrophic rock avalanche, could have serious consequences on several elements at risk, including a hydroelectric power plant. Runout estimates are needed to identify the potential impact on the territory of such an event and, when possible, to minimize hazard areas. This article analyses the evolution of three potential rock avalanche scenarios, with decreasing probability of occurrence and increasing impact on land planning. A comparison between runout results obtained by other authors and some new analyses that have been carried out with the three-dimensional continuum mechanics-based RASH(3D) code is made and commented on by highlighting the advantages, but also the limits, of using a more complete tool, such as RASH(3D).