Grid-enabled Monte Carlo analysis of the impacts of uncertain discharge rates on seawater intrusion in the Korba aquifer (Tunisia)

被引：16

作者：

Kerrou, Jaouher ^{[1
]}

Renard, Philippe ^{[1
]}

Lecca, Giuditta ^{[2
]}

Tarhouni, Jamila ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Neuchatel, Ctr Hydrogeol, CH-2009 Neuchatel, Switzerland

[2] Ctr Adv Studies Res & Dev Sardinia, I-09010 Cagliari, Italy

[3] Inst Natl Agron Tunisie, Tunis 1082, Tunisia

来源：

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES | 2010年 / 55卷 / 08期

基金：

瑞士国家科学基金会;

关键词：

seawater intrusion; numerical modelling; geostatistics; uncertainty; grid computing; INTERFACE; FLOW;

D O I：

10.1080/02626667.2010.519706

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

The Korba aquifer, located in the north of Tunisia, suffers heavily from salinization due to seawater intrusion. In 2000, the aquifer was exploited from more than 9000 wells. The problem is that no precise information was recorded concerning the current extraction rates, their spatial distribution, or their evolution in time. In this study, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. The impacts of the uncertainty on the spatial distribution of the pumping rates on seawater intrusion were evaluated using a 3-D density-dependent groundwater model. To circumvent the large amount of computing time required to run transient models, the simulations were run in a parallel fashion on the Grid infrastructure provided by the Enabling Grid for E-Science in Europe project. Monte Carlo simulations results showed that 8.3% of the aquifer area is affected by input uncertainty.

引用

页码：1325 / 1336

页数：12