A new model for the quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties based on the correction of anti-lethal level

The timely and accurate assessment of casualties is the key for and basis of emergency rescue work after an earthquake. In this paper, through exponential fitting of historical seismic data, an evaluation model of death based on the building destruction ratio is proposed. Through the analysis of historical seismic data, we propose the concept of an anti-lethal level and construct the corresponding coefficient. We use factors such as earthquake magnitude, intensity, and occurrence time, the population density, and the anti-lethal level in the region as correction factors for the predicted number of casualties and build a model for evaluating the number of casualties based on coefficient correction. The evaluation results are relatively accurate; the R-2 index of the proposed model is 0.8768, whereas the R-2 of the two comparison models selected in this paper is 0.619 and 0.4603, respectively. The accuracy of the proposed model results is much higher than that of the other models, which illustrates the effectiveness of the model presented in this paper. It also indicates that the model proposed in this paper can provide a scientific basis and data support for earthquake emergency rescue work.