The dancing of the real exchange rate of US dollar and the US real trade balance

The current study seeks to re-examine a possible long-run dynamic relationship between the trade-weighted real exchange rate of US dollar and US real trade balance by using the well-known cointegration methodology. The sample period includes observations from the second quarter of 1973 through the second quarter of 1992. The unit root test reveals that the trade-weighted real exchange value of dollar and the US real trade balance are individually nonstationary in levers. The ADF test concludes that there is no systematic long-run association between these two variables even under the flexible exchange rate system.