EMERGING TRENDS IN TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGIES: THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSFORMATION TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

The global increase of CO2 emissions requires a transformation of the transport system. This paper aims to provide an overview of emerging cutting-edge transport technologies and mobility services that may have the potential to enable a transformation of the transport system towards sustainability. Thus, innovative transport technologies and mobility services were identified, focussing on non-scientific literature to keep track on the latest developments. The future trends for four technology categories of vehicles, engines, materials and infrastructure/operating technologies were assessed concerning their potential for supporting a change of the mobility system towards sustainability. Based on this, gaps and blind spots in current transport research activities were revealed. Especially autonomous driving systems appeared as emerging trends in all modes of transport. Several prototypes of unmanned cargo ships and aircrafts are currently in trial operations and indicate a large-scale implementation of the technology first in the freight sector. The major breakthrough though is expected in passenger transportation, where besides prototypes of autonomous vehicles several other innovations such as autonomous passenger drones already exist. Results further indicate a trend towards new business models and mobility services (e.g. Mobility as a service or on-demand systems) as several cities already announced to ban cars from their urban centres through implementation of these new mobility solutions. Related to these developments, new stakeholders will enter the mobility market and realign the initial competitors' landscape. Finally, technological developments as part of the emerging Industry 4.0 (e.g. additive manufacturing) will significantly influence traditional manufacturing processes and lead to a fundamental reorganisation of the transport industry in the future. Results of the trend analysis show that many new mobility options are arising from innovation, providing the potential for system transformation towards sustainable transport and mobility. However, this potential will only be realized if guided into the right directions by stakeholders, regulation and society as the study further revealed that innovations imply the danger of accentuating today's problems. Thus, a focus on mobility paradigms, sufficiency principles and strategies in both transport research and policies are of crucial interest.