Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market

被引：9
|
作者：
Elaad, Guy [1 ]
Reade, J. James [2 ]
Singleton, Carl [2 ]
机构：
[1] Ariel Univ, Dept Econ & Business Management, POB 3, IL-40700 Arid, Israel
[2] Univ Reading, Dept Econ, Whiteknights Campus, Reading RG6 6UA, Berks, England
来源：
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS | 2020年 / 35卷
基金：
英国经济与社会研究理事会;
关键词：
Prediction markets; Efficient market hypothesis; Favourite-longshot bias; Forecast efficiency;
D O I：
10.1016/j.frl.2019.09.006
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
We contribute to the discussion on betting market efficiency by studying the odds (or prices) set by fifty-one online bookmakers, for the result outcomes in over 16,000 association football matches in England since 2010. Adapting a methodology typically used to evaluate forecast efficiency, we test the Efficient Market Hypothesis in this context. We find odds are generally not biased when compared against actual match outcomes, both in terms of favourite-longshot or outcome types. But individual bookmakers are not efficient. Their own odds do not appear to use fully the information contained in their competitors' odds.
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页数：6
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