Impacts of Climate Change and Varietal Replacement on Winter Wheat Phenology in the North China Plain

Investigating the impacts of climate change and varietal replacement on winter wheat phenology is important for understanding the processes and mechanisms underlying crop responses and adaptations to ongoing climate change. Information on the impact of cultivar shifts on phenological trends based on field experiments is limited. In this study, we analyzed the impacts of climate change and varietal replacement on winter wheat phenology using historical meteorological and phenological data from the North China Plain and field experiments on wheat varieties at different times. The results showed that the sowing date of winter wheat was delayed in northern areas and advanced in southern areas, whereas the greening-up, heading, and maturity dates all advanced in the North China Plain. The lengths of the vegetative and whole growth phases were shortened at 70.00% and 83.33%, respectively, of the stations in the North China Plain; by contrast, the length of the reproductive growth phase was prolonged at 86.67% of the stations. The precipitation and mean temperature were correlated with the length of the growth phases. Varietal replacement prolonged the growth phase, especially the reproductive growth phase of winter wheat. Therefore, the winter wheat cultivars with longer full growing periods should be adopted in the North China Plain in response to phenological changes caused by climate warming, and the strategy adapted for winter wheat production should consider the crop phenology response to climate change. This study provides theoretical support and scientific evidence for the formulation of scientific management measures for the adaptation of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain.