MAXENT MODELING THE CURRENT AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INVASIVE PEST, THE FALL ARMYWORM (SPODOPTERA FRUGIPERDA) (LEPIDOPTERA: NOCTUIDAE), UNDER CHANGING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN CHINA

In this study we investigated the effects of climate change on the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Based on the current distribution records of S. frugiperda and selected bioclimatic factors, we modelled its potential habitat suitability in China under four climate change scenarios using Maximum Entropy Models (MaxEnt) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Our results showed that: (1) the mean area under curve (AUC) values of both our initial and final models were greater than 0.978, indicating high accuracy in the predictions; (2) the dominant environmental factors regulating the habitat suitability of S. frugiperda were Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18), Temperature Seasonality (bio4), Annual Mean Temperature (bio1) and Precipitation Seasonality (bio15); (3) the highly suitable areas for S. frugiperda were mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, most parts of Henan and Guangxi, central and eastern Hubei, central and southern Shaanxi, and southeastern and northern Zhejiang, accounting for 17.6% of China's landmass; (4) from the present until the 2070s, the areas of the non-suitable regions will decrease as climate warming becomes more severe, and the geometric center of the highly and total suitable areas will displace to the north under all four climate change scenarios.