Spatial model of reproduction on panel data

The reproduction process characterizes the movement of commodity and financial flows in the economy, influencing its development. This determines the interest of scientists, government bodies and entrepreneurial structures in its studying. In this article, reproduction is considered as a process that changes over time, on the one hand, and has a spatial dependence, due to the mismatch of places of production and consumption, on the other hand. The methods of spatial-panel analysis made it possible to take into account simultaneously the spatial and dynamic changes in the phases of production, exchange and consumption within the reproductive process. In the work, specialized statistical tests were consistently carried out, which substantiate the possibility of constructing panel and spatial models and make it possible to determine their specification. Further, the spatial autocorrelation of the data is estimated, econometric models are built with and without the imposition of a spatial matrix, and the obtained models are compared. The calculations were carried out on the basis of data from 83 constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 2010-2019. The constructed models made it possible to identify individual effects of territories, effects by periods, and also to assess the influence of the mutual location of territories relative to each other on changes in production. The results obtained indicate a bi-(contr)direction influence of regional reproduction systems on each other. On the one hand, the positive value of the spatial autoregressive coefficient indicates a positive relation between regional production within the national reproductive system, on the other hand - the negative value of the spatial error coefficient indicates that there are also feedbacks between the neighboring territories. The results obtained significantly expand the possibilities of forecasting and managing changes in the reproduction process in the regions and in the country as a whole.