Russia's Arctic Designs and NATO

The war in Ukraine has made Russia's Arctic strategy of developing the Northern Sea Route more important. Moscow and Beijing share interests in redirecting Russian energy and mineral exports towards China and expanding infrastructure along Russia's Arctic coastline to connect the Northern Sea Route with China's Polar Silk Road. Chinese investments and technology are necessary to realise the sea route's commercial potential and protect Russia's Arctic security interests. Supply lines between North America and Europe traverse the High North. China is supporting a strengthened Russian defence posture by expanding cooperation on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. This will help Russia challenge NATO along both China's coastline and Russia's borders with NATO. Accordingly, NATO needs to devise a strategy that recognises the interdependence of its eastern and northern flanks.