Trust-Based Scenarios - Predicting Future Agent Behavior in Open Self-organizing Systems

Agents in open self-organizing systems have to cope with a variety of uncertainties. In order to increase their utility and to ensure stable operation of the overall system, they have to capture and adapt to these uncertainties at runtime. This can be achieved by formulating an expectancy of the behavior of others and the environment. Trust has been proposed as a concept for this purpose. In this paper, we present trust-based scenarios as an enhancement of current trust models. Trust-based scenarios represent stochastic models that allow agents to take different possible developments of the environment's or other agents' behavior into account. We demonstrate that trust-based scenarios significantly improve the agents' capability to predict future behavior with a distributed power management application.