Efficient Stochastic Simulation of Seawater Intrusion, With Mixing, in Confined Coastal Aquifers

We present a high-efficiency method for simulating seawater intrusion (SWI), with mixing, in confined coastal aquifers based on uncoupled equations in the through-flow region of the aquifer. The flow field is calculated analytically and the tracer transport numerically, via spatial splitting along the principal directions (PD) of transport. Advection-dispersion processes along streamlines are simulated with the very efficient matched artificial dispersivity (MAD) method of Syriopoulou and Koussis and the system of discretized transverse-dispersion equations is solved with the Thomas algorithm. These concepts are embedded in the 2D-MADPD-SWI model, yielding comparable solutions to those of the uncoupled SWI equations with the state-of-the-art FEFLOW code, but faster, while 2D-MADPD-SWI achieves an at least hundredfold faster solution than a variable-density flow model. We demonstrate the utility of the 2D-MADPD-SWI model in stochastic Monte Carlo simulations by assessing the uncertainty on the advance of the 1,500 ppm TDS line (limit of tolerable salinity for irrigation) due to randomly variable hydraulic conductivity and freshwater flow rate.