Optical coherence tomography predictors of progression of non-exudative age-related macular degeneration to advanced atrophic and exudative disease

Purpose To study the natural history of optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging-based findings seen in non-exudative age-related macular degeneration (neAMD) and model their relative likelihood in predicting development of incomplete retinal pigment epithelium and outer retinal atrophy (iRORA), complete retinal pigment epithelium and outer retinal atrophy (cRORA), and neovascular AMD (nAMD). Methods Retrospective chart review was performed at two academic practices. Patients diagnosed with neAMD for whom yearly OCT scans were obtained for at least 4 consecutive years were included. Baseline demographic, visual acuity, AREDS staging, and OCT data were collected. OCTs were assessed for the presence or absence of eleven features previously individually associated with progression of neAMD, both at baseline, and on all subsequent follow-up scans. Likewise, charts were reviewed to assess visual acuity and staging of NEAMD at all follow-up visits. A multivariate regression analysis was constructed to determine predictors of iRORA, cRORA, and nAMD. Results A total of 107 eyes of 88 patients were evaluated. Follow-up included yearly OCTs obtained over at least 4 consecutive years follow-up (range: 50-94 months). During the follow-up period, 17 eyes progressed to iRORA while 25 progressed to cRORA and 16 underwent conversion to nAMD. Predictors of conversion to iRORA and cRORA included integrity of the external limiting membrane (p = 0.02), the ellipsoid zone (p = 0.01), and the cone outer segment line (p = 0.003) and the presence of intraretinal hyporeflective spaces (p = 0.009), drusen ooze (p = 0.05), and drusen collapse (p = 0.001). OCT features predictive of conversion to nAMD included outer nuclear layer (ONL) loss (p = 0.01), presence of intraretinal (p = 0.001) and subretinal (p = 0.005) hyporeflective spaces, and drusen collapse (p = 0.003). Conclusion Of these multiple factors predictive of progression of neAMD, the OCT feature most strongly correlated to progression to iRORA/cRORA was drusen collapse, and the feature most predictive of conversion to nAMD was the presence of intraretinal hyporeflective spaces.