Predicting embankment dam breach parameters - A needs assessment

Simulation of embankment dam breach events and the resulting floods are crucial to characterizing and reducing threats due to potential dam failures. Development of effective emergency action plans requires accurate prediction of inundation levels and the time of flood wave arrival at a given location. If population centers are located well downstream of a dam, details of the breaching process have little effect on the result; travel time, attenuation, and other routing effects predominate. However, in a growing number of cases, the location of population centers near a dam makes accurate prediction of breach parameters (e.g., breach width, depth, rate of development) crucial to the analysis. If breach parameters cannot be predicted with reasonable accuracy, increased conservatism with associated increased costs are required. This paper examines existing empirical procedures and numerical models used to predict breach parameters, reviews new technologies relevant to dam breaches, and outlines a program for development of an improved numerical model for the simulation of embankment dam breach events.