Predictability of Turbulent Flow in Street Canyons

Although predictability is a subject of great importance in atmospheric modelling, there has been little research on urban boundary-layer flows. Here the predictability of street-canyon flow is examined numerically via large-eddy simulation of a unit-aspect-ratio canyon and neutrally stratified atmosphere. In spectral space there is indication of cascade-like behaviour away from the canyon at early times, but the error growth is essentially independent of scale inside the canyon; in physical space the error field is rather inhomogeneous and shows clear differences among the canyon, shear layer and inertial sublayer. The error growth is largely driven by the shear layer: errors generated above roof level are advected into the canyon while contributions from intermittent bursting and in situ development within the canyon play a relatively minor role. This work highlights differences between the predictability of urban flows and canonical turbulent flows and should be useful in developing modelling strategies for more realistic time-dependent urban flows.