Probabilistic calibration of a distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting

被引:21
|
作者
Mediero, L. [1 ]
Garrote, L. [1 ]
Martin-Carrasco, F. J. [1 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Madrid, Dept Civil Engn Hydraul & Energet, E-28040 Madrid, Spain
关键词
RIBS model; multi-objective calibration; flood forecasting; AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION; MULTIOBJECTIVE CALIBRATION; UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT; RUNOFF; OPTIMIZATION; PREDICTION; PARAMETERS; ALGORITHM; MULTIPLE; GLUE;
D O I
10.1080/02626667.2011.610322
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
The complexity of distributed hydrological models has led to improvements in calibration methodologies in recent years. There are various manual, automatic and hybrid methods of calibration. Most use a single objective function to calculate estimation errors. The use of multi-objective calibration improves results, since different aspects of the hydrograph may be considered simultaneously. However, the uncertainty of estimates from a hydrological model can only be taken into account by using a probabilistic approach. This paper presents a calibration method of probabilistic nature, based on the determination of probability functions that best characterize different parameters of the model. The method was applied to the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model using the Manzanares River basin in Spain as a case study. The proposed method allows us to consider the uncertainty in the model estimates by obtaining the probability distributions of flows in the flood hydrograph.
引用
收藏
页码:1129 / 1149
页数:21
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