Probabilistic Reliability Management Approach and Criteria for Power System Real-time Operation

This paper develops a probabilistic approach for power system reliability management in real-time operation where risk is a product of i) the potential occurrence of contingencies, ii) the possible failure of corrective (i.e., post-contingency) control and, iii) the socio-economic impact of service interruptions to end-users. Stressing the spatiotemporal variability of these factors, we argue for reliability criteria assuring a high enough probability of avoiding service interruptions of severe socio-economic impact by dynamically identifying events of non-negligible implied risk. We formalise the corresponding decision making problem as a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming problem, and study its main features on the single area IEEE RTS-96 system. We also discuss how to leverage this proposal for the construction of a globally coherent reliability management framework for long-term system development, midterm asset management, and short-term operation planning.