Analyzing the distributional effects of fuel taxation in China

As an effective policy instrument to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the effects of fuel taxation on income distribution have been the critical factor that determines whether a fuel tax could be acceptable in China. This paper estimates the distributional effects of a fuel tax on households in various income groups by using the input-output model. Results indicate that the total distributional effects of fuel taxes are moderately progressive; that is, high-income households would bear more tax burden compared to low-income households. In addition, the indirect effects are larger than the direct effects. Moreover, the Kakwani and Suits indices show that fuel excise taxes are progressive, implying that a fuel tax could improve the unfair income distribution. In order to reduce the negative impact of fuel taxes on low-income households, it is necessary for the government to design a reasonable redistribution mechanism of tax revenue or adopt compensatory measures such as the transfer payments targeted on low-income groups.