Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute

被引：460

作者：

Helbing, Dirk ^{[1
,2
]}

Brockmann, Dirk ^{[3
,4
]}

Chadefaux, Thomas ^{[1
]}

Donnay, Karsten ^{[1
]}

Blanke, Ulf ^{[5
]}

Woolley-Meza, Olivia ^{[1
]}

Moussaid, Mehdi ^{[6
]}

Johansson, Anders ^{[7
,8
]}

Krause, Jens ^{[9
]}

Schutte, Sebastian ^{[10
]}

Perc, Matjaz ^{[11
]}

机构：

[1] ETH, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[2] ETH, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Risk Ctr, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[3] Robert Koch Inst, D-13353 Berlin, Germany

[4] Humboldt Univ, Inst Theoret Biol, D-10115 Berlin, Germany

[5] ETH, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Wearable Comp Lab, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[6] Max Planck Inst Human Dev, Ctr Adapt Rat ARC, D-14195 Berlin, Germany

[7] UCL, Ctr Adv Spatial Anal, London W1T 4TJ, England

[8] Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Syst Ctr, Bristol BS8 1UB, Avon, England

[9] Leibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries, Dept Biol & Ecol Fishes, D-12587 Berlin, Germany

[10] ETH, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Ctr Comparat & Int Studies, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[11] Univ Maribor, Fac Nat Sci & Math, SLO-2000 Maribor, Slovenia

来源：

JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PHYSICS | 2015年 / 158卷 / 03期

关键词：

Crowd disasters; Crime; Terrorism; War; Disease spreading; Complexity science; EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS; INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT; PEDESTRIAN BEHAVIOR; MATHEMATICAL-THEORY; POPULATION BIOLOGY; SOCIAL NETWORKS; CRIME; SPREAD; MODEL; INSURGENT;

D O I：

10.1007/s10955-014-1024-9

中图分类号：

O4 [物理学];

学科分类号：

0702 ;

摘要：

We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain them. Many common approaches do not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior, because they neglect feedback loops, instabilities and cascade effects. The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.

引用

页码：735 / 781

页数：47

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