Digital mapping of soil carbon sequestration potential with enhanced vegetation cover over New South Wales, Australia

Digital soil maps of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential resulting from a hypothetical 10% relative increase in long-term vegetation cover are presented at 100-m resolution across the state of New South Wales (NSW) in southeast Australia. This land management outcome is considered realistically achievable for many land managers, using strategies such as revegetation, grazing management or crop residue management. A mean state-wide potential increase of 5.4 Mg ha(-1) over the 0- to 30-cm depth interval was derived. Assuming a 20-year period of re-equilibration, this equates to an average SOC increase of 0.27 Mg ha(-1) year(-1). Sequestration potential is systematically influenced by a combination of climate, soil parent material and current vegetation cover, for example only 1.6 Mg ha(-1) SOC under dry conditions in sandy, infertile soil material with sparse vegetation cover, compared with 15.9 Mg ha(-1) under wet conditions in clay-rich, fertile soil material with moderate-high vegetation cover. The outputs could be used to identify locations of highest sequestration potential and thereby help prioritize areas and inform decisions on sequestration programmes. Future application of the method at field scale with high levels of accuracy, together with strategic sampling, may provide statistically reliable estimates of carbon sequestration, for application in carbon trading schemes such as Australia's Emissions Reduction Fund. The modelling involved a conceptually transparent 'space-for-time substitution' process. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) modelling techniques were applied, but only MLR gave consistently meaningful results. The apparent failing of RF in this application warrants further examination.