Using control theory to model the long-term economic effects of wildfire

Wildland fire management strategies often have long-term economic and ecological impacts, as evidenced by the increase in fire danger resulting from the total suppression policy of the last several decades. In the long run, the choice of an optimal wildland fire management strategy depends upon the cumulative effects of fire management factors as well as the interaction between them. A theoretical extension to the cost plus net value change (C+NVC) model is developed by using the principles of control theory. It explores the long-term relationships among the factors of production and the choice of optimal management strategies given that fire management actions have consequences in the future.