Modeling agricultural production strategies in the northern Rio Grande Valley, New Mexico

Diversification in agricultural techniques is a common strategy of risk minimization in nonindustrial societies. However, attribution of suboptimal behavior to risk minimization without consideration of the structure of risk and its environmental context obscures the complexity of agricultural decision-making. The productive potential of a prehistoric agricultural system that includes floodwater and dry farming and stream irrigation is modeled using Geographic formation System (GIS) analysis to evaluate whether diversification occurred as a response to population pressure or as a risk buffering strategy. The estimated productive potential of floodwater and irrigation farming is sufficient to have supported the estimated local population, suggesting that risk buffering is a more likely explanation. I;Floodwater farming and stream irrigation form a dual strategy that is effective at reducing risk. However, the potential of dry farming for subsistence production is insufficient for buffering more than a 2% productive shortfall. We propose that, within this generally risk-averse economy, dry farming was oriented toward the production of nonsubsistence crops such as cotton.