INTEGRATED PREDICTION AND EVALUATION OF FUTURE URBAN WATER ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF WATER ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT: A CASE STUDY OF JINAN, CHINA

As the first pilot city of water ecological civilization construction, Jinan suffers from a poor state of water ecological sustainability (WES). Based on generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and a 10-year record of relevant data (from 2006 to 2015), this study proposes a prediction and evaluation model aiming to simulate the future WES of Jinan in the following 5 years. To develop such data driven models efficiently, a water ecological footprint (WEF) basic model is adopted to analyze the dynamic evolvement rules of WEF during 2006-2015. Two integrated indicators which named coupling index and coupling coordinative index of water ecological sustainability (CIWES and CCIWES) are then independently integrated from water resources, society, economy and ecological environment systems to further construct WES evaluation model. Results indicate that water pollution footprints contributed 85.5% to Jinan's WEF and it led to a poor WES in the process of water ecological civilization construction. More seriously, despite the future WES on rise, it was still in a relatively poor state and has not return to the higher state in its history. The study demonstrates that the coupling coordination and mutual benefit of each subsystem in the nature should be paid equivalent attention.