Modelling spatial distribution of endemic Moroccan fir (Abies marocana Trabut) in Talassemtane National Park, Morocco

Moroccan fir (Abies marocana Trabut) located in Talassemtane National Park, is endemic species of the Moroccan Rif, classified as "endangered" in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Since the beginning of the last century, this species has suffered 70% habitat loss. However, despite its bioecological, economic and social importance, Moroccan fir has received little attention from researchers. Determining the potential area under current topographic and climatic conditions is a very important step to develop conservation and sustainable management strategies for this endangered endemic species. For this purpose, the potential distribution of Moroccan fir using the maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt software 3.4.1) is presented in this work. The developed models showed an excellent success level (96%). Environmental and topographic variables were obtained from the WorldClim project 2.1 database. Our results showed that the main variables conditioning the presence of A. marocana were the average temperature of the warmest quarter and the maximum temperature of the warmest month. The potential area represents a gain of 227% compared to the current distribution of the Moroccan fir forest. Suitable areas are provided allowing management for afforestation programs and carbon sequestration in Talassemtane National Park, Morocco.