A System of Systems Approach for Effects-Based Operational Planning Under Uncertainty

Operational planning under uncertainty is often difficult because assessment of the impacts of these operations often requires a system of systems (SoS) level analysis to guide decision making. For example, one objective for military and support operations undertaken in Iraq and Afghanistan is to restore economic productivity in order to promote social order and stability. Yet, planning in this context is challenging due to the highly interdependent nature of the economic sectors. This paper develops a framework for decision support in effects-based operations (EBO) planning that integrates systems modeling, uncertainty analysis, and optimization. The proposed optimization under uncertainty (OUU) framework has three components that: 1) represent a network of interdependent systems using input-output models that describe the behavior of the various systems; 2) analyze and propagate uncertainties using analytical reliability methods; and 3) optimize SoS-level objectives under these uncertainties. Optimality conditions are derived for the proposed optimization formulation. A solution algorithm is presented and illustrated using numerical data representative of a predominantly oil-based national economy.