Direct democracy and the adoption of recreational marijuana legalization in the United States, 2012-2019

Background: Over the past decade, a number of American states have legalized marijuana for recreational use. There are various state level factors that impact policy adoption. This study investigates whether and how these factors have contributed to higher likelihoods of adopting recreational marijuana legalization.Data and Methods: Drawing on longitudinal data from 2012 to 2019 for 49 U.S. states, this study assesses the impacts of political and economic contexts, public opinion, policy history, demand, and ideological and spatial diffusion on the likelihood of marijuana legalization. This study also introduces a novel measure - the level of direct democracy - to capture variability in the use of direct democratic processes, and assesses its effect on legalization. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the effect of these factors on the probability of legalization.Results: Net of political and economic contexts, amenable contexts for marijuana, and diffusion, states with higher levels of direct democracy - where voters can more easily initiate policy change by way of initiatives and referenda, and where state legislatures are limited in their capacity to alter voter initiatives - exhibited higher probabilities of legalizing marijuana for recreational use.Conclusion: The level of direct democracy is relevant for understanding policy adoption. In the case of marijuana legalization, a state's degree of direct democracy can signal the state's openness to progressive policy change. Scholars should consider how direct democracy interacts with contextual factors to impact stages of the policy change process.