Hierarchical Bass model: a product diffusion model considering a diversity of sensitivity to fashion

We propose a new product diffusion model including the number of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met until he/she adopts the product, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing it. By this effect not considered in the Bass model, we can depict a diversity of sensitivity to fashion. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod and the iPhone unit sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model for the iPod data. We also present a new method to estimate the number of advertisements in a society from fitting parameters of the Bass model and this new model. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.