Climate change and nature reserves: examining the potential impacts, with examples from Great Britain

A climate change trend analysis (CCTA) was carried out on selected plant species from 66 nature reserves. The CCTA indicates trend in probability of presence under various climate change scenarios. The results demonstrate the potential of the approach to identify locations that might become less suitable for particular species as the climate warms, and sites where certain species might become more vigorous. The approach also offers the potential to identify (a) locations where changes in plant populations may provide an indicator of climate change (b) whether conservation strategies currently in place will remain feasible as climate changes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.