Risk homeostasis theory: Problems of the past and promises for the future

Risk homeostasis theory (RHT) has sparked continuous scientific debate for more than a decade. Beginning with total rejection, it was then increasingly examined with doubtful curiosity. In the following years it received some support, until there is now universal acceptance of one of its key components, namely risk compensation or behavioural adaptation. The strict notion of risk homeostasis, however, is still open for debate, as some of its problems, both theoretical and empirical, have not been sufficiently resolved. For example, falsifying the concept seems to be impossible in field studies, as not all possible behavioural adaptations can be controlled for. Yet, while some aspects need to be clarified, RHT continues to spark interesting research and to provide useful ideas for accident reduction and preventing health-related dangers, such as the focusing on incentives. Including the notion of risk-taking behaviour as being sometimes attractive and changing the notion of a single to that of multiple target levels of risk are among suggestions for theoretical development. Using participative methods to change both risk assessment and the value of safety and health are suggestions for further applications of RHT made in this paper. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd