Some improvements of wind speed Markov chain modeling

被引：49

作者：

Tang, Jie ^{[1
]}

Brouste, Alexandre ^{[2
]}

Tsui, Kwok Leung ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Syst Engn & Engn Management, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Maine, Lab Manceau Math, F-72017 Le Mans, France

来源：

RENEWABLE ENERGY | 2015年 / 81卷

关键词：

Wind speed; Forecasting model; Markov chains modeling method; GENERATION; 1ST;

D O I：

10.1016/j.renene.2015.03.005

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

In this study, the traditional Markov chain method for wind speed modeling is analyzed and two improvements are introduced. New states categorization step and wind speeds simulation step are presented. They both take advantage of the empirical cumulative distribution function of the wind speed time series. Performances of the new method are tested in terms of modeling and short-term forecasting. The results suggest that this method overperforms the traditional one for modeling. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：52 / 56

页数：5

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