Medium-term financing needs of the Independent States of the Former Soviet Union

This paper provides quantitative estimates of relationships between national savings, foreign savings, capital formation and economic growth for the Independent States of the Former Soviet Union. We assume that initial growth performance is dominated by a sharp transition downturn but that growth potential is the same as other countries with similar initial conditions. National savings are modeled as a forward looking decision of households. Foreign savings "needed" to maintain arbitrary levels of investment are assumed to be feasible if the external debt/gdp ratio remains within historical norms. (C) 1999 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Science Inc.