Relationship Between the Number of Summer Typhoons Engendered over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea and Main Climatic Conditions in the Preceding Winter and Spring

Based on the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) data, and tropical cyclone data from the Typhoon Annual and Tropical Cyclone Annual edited by China Meteorological Administration, the relationship between the number of tropical cyclones (with the strongest wind >= 17 m s(-1), including tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and typhoon, simply called typhoon in this paper) engendered over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in summer and the associated climate conditions is studied. First, the characteristics and differences of the climatic conditions between the years with more typhoons and those with fewer typhoons are compared. The results show that the summer typhoon has a close relationship with SST (sea surface temperature) and ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone) anomalies in the preceding winter and spring. With a La Nina like SST anomaly (SSTA) pattern in the preceding winter and spring, the ITCZ will move northwestward and be enhanced around 160 degrees E in the equatorial central Pacific from the preceding winter to spring. The activity of the Pacific ITCZ is in general stronger and its location is more northward than usual, especially in the typhoon genesis region in West Pacific. This background is propitious to have more typhoons in summer. On the other hand, an El Nino like SSTA pattern in the preceding winter will be companied with weaker ITCZ activities, and its location is more southward over the equatorial western Pacific from the preceding winter to spring; this background is propitious to have fewer typhoons in summer. In the year with more typhoons, the warm SST over West Pacific in the preceding winter provides a favorable condition for typhoon fromation in the following summer. It enhances the convergence in the troposphere and increases the water vapor supply to the warm SST region. In the following spring, the perturbation of the tropical ITCZ plays a more important role. When the ITCZ moves northward in spring, anomalous convergence will appear over the warm SST region and inspire the positive feedback between the large-scale moisture flux at low levels and the latent heat release in the atmosphere, which benefits the typhoon genesis in summer. Otherwise, if cold SST maintains over the northwestern Pacific during the preceding winter and spring, the convergence in the troposphere is disfavored and the water vapor supply to the cold SST region is reduced, which will bring about weaker ITCZ activities and the perturbation is lacking in the following spring. It then results in fewer summer typhoons.