Updating the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Management Plan: Estimating the Impact to Commercial Fishing in Monroe County, Florida

This article is designed to provide the methodologies used to estimate the impact to the commercial fishing industry as a result of spatial zone management changes within Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and its study area, Monroe County, FL. The analysis provided here provides a template for how to estimate economic impacts when refined human use spatial data are not available. Utilizing existing habitat maps and economic data, this method downscales traditional economic methods using a spatial approach to match the fine-scale management approach utilized by the National Marine Sanctuary System. This approach allows the authors to estimate the economic impacts to the commercial fishing sector. The authors find that the proposed spatial zone changes may result in an estimated loss of 42 jobs, with 28 being harvester jobs, to the state of Florida. Additionally, $4.1 million in output and approximately $1.1 million in income may be lost. These estimates do not take into account the likelihood of substitution to alternative fishing grounds or adjusting the target species.