Probabilistic analysis of cracked structures with uncertainty parameters

This paper presents a probabilistic approach for fracture mechanics analysis of cracked structures. The objective of this work is to calculate the rigidity of cracked structures based on failure probability. The methodology consists of cracked structures modelling, finite element analysis with adaptive mesh, sampling of cracked structure including uncertainties factors and probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo method. Probabilistic analysis represents the priority of proceeding either suitable to repair the structures or it can be justified that the structures are still in safe condition. Therefore, the combination of finite element and probabilistic analysis represents the failure probability of the structures by operating the sampling of cracked structures process. The uncertainty of the crack size can produce a significant effect on the probability of failure, particularly for the crack size with large coefficient of variation. The probability of failure caused by uncertainties relates to loads and material properties of the structure are estimated using Monte Carlo simulation technique. Numerical example is presented to show that probabilistic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation provides accurate estimates of failure probability. The comparisons of simulation result, analytical solution and relevant numerical results obtained from other previous works shows that the combination of finite element analysis and probabilistic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation provides accurate estimation of failure probability.