A probabilistic method for cost minimization in a day-ahead electricity market considering uncertainties

During recent decades, using wind power as one of the most substantial renewable energy sources has been vastly intensified in power systems. Increasing wind power penetration in the power grid can have both detrimental and beneficial effects. Due to the uncertain nature of wind power, the system operator is faced with many challenges to make proper decisions for the electricity market. In this paper, a probabilistic method is proposed which not only effectively manages wind power sources along with other producers, but also takes the uncertain behavior of wind power in defined intervals into account. Using wind farm information in each hour, a new approach for calculating the probability density function (PDF) in uncertainty bounds is presented. By utilizing the calculated PDF two objective functions are proposed for minimizing the total expected cost during 24 h without and with considering consumers payments. The proposed objective functions have been minimized through a two-level optimization method using three different heuristic algorithms (Tcaching-Learning-Bascd Optimization (TLBO), Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization and Gravitational Search Algorithm (PSO-GSA), and Ant Lion Optimization (ALO)) on an 8-bus sample transmission network. The results show the total expected cost has been decreased up to 20% in some scenarios. In addition, the proposed method can satisfy consumers by keeping their payments close to the lowest amount according to the different scenarios. Published by AIP Publishing.