Research on the Relation between Real Estate Financial Structure and Real Estate Economic Growth in China

By recursive estimation in co-integration VAR model, we analyze the relationship between real estate financial structure and growth of real estate economy in China. The result shows that there's a structural break in the long equilibrium of real estate financial structural development and growth of real estate economy in the period of 2003Q4-2004Q4. It is because a series of economic and financial control measures has been taken since 2002. The negative influence brought by real estate economic growth during the sudden change of real estate financial structure is result of the impact on short equilibrium from reform measures. But in the long run, it won't influence equilibrium of long term. Co-integration error path shows real estate financial structure can't fit in real estate economic growth sometimes, which means it is necessary to make real estate financial reform or optimize financial structure. The current real estate financial structure is still bank dominant. So optimized direction of real estate finance is to free financial policies and to innovate financial instruments. Weak exogeneity test shows domestic loans, enterprise self-financing and funds of other sources grow within real estate economic growth. Each of them has long term and two-way causality with real estate economic growth.