Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?

被引：0
|
作者：
Smith, Warwick [1 ]
Hanea, Anca M. [2 ]
Burgman, Mark A. [3 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Melbourne, Sch Social & Polit Sci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia
[2] Univ Melbourne, Ctr Excellence Biosecur Risk Anal, Sch BioSci, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia
[3] Imperial Coll London, Ctr Environm Policy, London SW7 1NE, England
来源：
FORECASTING | 2022年 / 4卷 / 03期
关键词：
economic forecasting; expert opinion; economic survey; macroeconomics; JUDGMENT;
D O I：
10.3390/forecast4030038
中图分类号：
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
Economic and financial forecasts are important for business planning and government policy but are notoriously challenging. We take advantage of recent advances in individual and group judgement, and a data set of economic and financial forecasts compiled over 25 years, consisting of multiple individual and institutional estimates, to test the claim that nominal groups will make more accurate economic and financial forecast than individuals. We validate the forecasts using the subsequent published (real) outcomes, explore the performance of nominal groups against institutions, identify potential superforecasters and discuss the benefits of implementing structured judgment techniques to improve economic and financial forecasts.
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页码：699 / 716
页数：18
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