Urban mining potential to reduce primary material use and carbon emissions in the Dutch residential building sector

Urban mining is regarded as an important strategy to replace primary raw materials in the building sector. This study presents a bottom-up dynamic building stock model to explore the potential of urban mining to reduce primary material consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the residential building sector of the Netherlands. The model builds upon geo-referenced individual buildings, making it possible to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of material supply from demolition and material demand for construction and renovation. The main results can be summarized as three points. (1) Urban mining cannot meet future material demand due to the new construction caused by population increase and its limited ability to supply the required kinds and amounts of materials. Therefore, large amounts of primary materials still have to be consumed in the future. (2) The generation of demolition wastes and the requirement for materials will be mainly concentrated in the big cities (e.g. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and The Hague). (3) The GHG emission reduction potential of urban mining is very small and is not as large as the transition to a greener electricity mix. Recycling together with a greener electricity mix would reduce annual GHG emissions by about 40% in 2050 compared to 2020. This study provides a tool to link future material inflows and outflows in space and time. It further helps to assess the performance of strategies aimed at closing the material loops and reducing GHG emissions in the building sector.