Trends in depression incidence in China, 1990-2019

Background: Depression is one of the most widespread health burdens for the general population in China. This study aims to assess the long-term trends of depression incidence in China between 1990 and 2019. Methods: The incidence data were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and an age-period-cohort model was used in the analysis. Results: The net drift was-0.66% (95% CI:-0.79% to-0.53%) per year for both genders. For males, the local drift was lower than 0 (P<0.05) in those aged 10-54 years, and higher than 0 (P<0.05) in those aged 60-69 years. For females, the local drift was lower than 0 (P<0.05) in those aged 10-49 years and higher than 0 (P<0.05) in those aged 55-84 years. Females had a higher risk of depression incidence than males. Compared with the 1990-1994 period, the relative risk (RR) of depression incidence in 2015-2019 decreased by 12.2% in males and 12.3% in females, and compared to the 1903-1907 birth cohort, the cohort RRs in the 2008-2012 birth cohort decreased by 42.1% in males and 34.5% in females. Period and cohort RRs all showed an increased tendency in recent periods and birth cohorts. Limitations: These data are macrolevel estimates at the national level, may have ecological fallacies. Conclusions: Although the age-standard incidence of depression has declined in China as a whole in the last three decades, the incidence of depression among older individuals has increased. More efforts are needed to promote the mental health of elderly individuals in China.