Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment

被引:4
|
作者
Mauleon, Ignacio [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Rey Juan Carlos, Dept Econ & Business, Madrid 28933, Spain
关键词
energy demand projections; statistical estimation; long historical time series; intervals of uncertainty; future demand and supply breaks; FORECASTS; GROWTH;
D O I
10.3390/en14154657
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
The primary purpose of this research is to assess the long-range energy demand assumption made in relevant Roadmaps for the transformation to a low-carbon energy system. A novel interdisciplinary approach is then implemented: a new model is estimated for the aggregated world primary energy demand with long historical time series for world energy, income, and population for the years 1900-2017. The model is used to forecast energy demand in 2050 and assess the uncertainty-derived risk based on the variances of the series and parameters analysed. The results show that large efficiency savings-up to 50% in some cases and never observed before-are assumed in the main Roadmaps. This discrepancy becomes significantly higher when even moderate uncertainty assumptions are taken into account. A discussion on possible future sources of breaks in current patterns of energy supply and demand is also presented, leading to a new conclusion requiring an active political stance to accelerate efficiency savings and lifestyle changes that reduce energy demand, even if energy consumption may be reduced significantly. This will likely include replacing the income-growth paradigm with other criteria based on prosperity or related measures.
引用
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页数:13
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