Influence of Agricultural Policy on Rural Development in Russia: a Scenario Approach

The purpose of this research was to analyze, model and forecast the influence the above measures may produce on the employment parameters in the agriculture of Russian Federation (RF) and on the rural development. The object of this research is the economically active rural population of the Russian Federation. By using mathematical modeling methods we make forecasts and substantiate some alternative scenarios of changes in the number of the employed in the Russian agriculture for the period ending 2040. A forecast estimation of demand for labor for implementing the inertial and innovation scenarios of development of the agro-food complex implies analyzing the interconnections between volumes of production, labor productivity, number of the employed in the agriculture, number of rural population of the able-bodied age and amounts of investments. As target guideposts for the macroeconomic parameters we used the data presented in the State Program for Development of the Agriculture and Regulation of the Markets for Agricultural Products, Feedstock and Food for the 2008-2012 Period and also the parameters contained in the inertial and innovation options of development set out in the Concept of the Long-term Social-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period Ending 2020. An assessment of the influence the economic policy exerts on employment parameters in the agriculture of Russian Federation is made. Forecast scenarios of the employed in the agriculture and forestry of Russian Federation are made by using the target guideposts for the sector set out in state programs. The need to change the structure of employment for the rural population is explained. Expansion of non-agricultural activities is one of the essential lines of the rural development policy.