Solar irradiance interval prediction based on set pair analysis theory

Output of Photovoltaic (PV) power plants always fluctuates obviously. Interval prediction of the output is necessary for a scheduled planning and system operation. The basis of output interval prediction is irradiance interval prediction. Based on the scientific division of meteorological data range, this paper proposes a set pair analysis method to construct irradiance interval. First, we normalized the history data. Then, we selected similar days. Thereafter, we constructed pairs and calculated the Identical Discrepancy Contrary (IDC) distance. The results reveal that the method proposed in this paper is effective.