Proposal of a dynamic model to evaluate public policies for the circular economy: Scenarios applied to the municipality of Curitiba

In Brazil, the National Solid Waste Policy (NSWP) does not encourage incineration. Thus, all the waste generated is disposed of in landfills or recycled. However, currently, around 94% of all the waste generated in Brazil, which is the 4th largest waste generator in the world, is disposed of in landfills. The aim of the article was to develop a dynamic model that allows an analysis of different scenarios involving the tradeoff between investment in new landfills and policies to increase the recycling rate. The methodology used was the technical of analysis of dynamic systems to develop scenarios, following a survey of the data relative to Brazil. The use of dynamic systems enables an understanding of the changing relationships in the waste value chain over time. From the current situation, scenarios have also been developed for Curitiba for 40 years. Curitiba is one of the most important Brazilian capital cities in terms of public policies for waste management. Because it is a dynamic system, the base theory for understanding the relationship between the variables and agents was the circular economy. The variables and relationships of the model were validated specialists, followed by a focal group of specialists in Brazil. By constructing two scenarios, with changes in terms of increasing investments in the public policy for environmental education, it was possible to gauge the impact throughout the value chain of paper and cardboard in Curitiba over a period of 40 years. The results show that the cost of disposal on land will increase, due to the volume generated and the cost of the land. The alternative of investing in recycling policies will reduce this impact in the future. The result shows that the long-term cost of not taking action is higher than the cost of a public policy. If annual investments increase from 315 thousand to 3,15 million (American dollars in 2016), the cost of disposal by 2055 will be reduced by 50 million of dollars per year. Moreover, the recycling rate can be increased by 23%, with the impact on positive externalities for the environment, and reduce the need to increase the use of new land to dispose of more waste. However, even with increased investments in environmental education policies, the 25% recycling rate is not achieved. This shows the need for further actions linked to the organization of the chain. The circular economy is complex, but it transforms problems into opportunities for municipalities such as Curitiba. In cities like Curitiba, where there is no regulated incineration, this analysis model allows an evaluation of the relationship of this tradeoff to propose state policies, transforming this problem into opportunities for municipalities. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.