A US Energy System Model for Disruption Analysis: Evaluating the Effects of 2005 Hurricanes

We refer to the national infrastructure necessary to provide electric energy in the U.S. as the National Electric Energy System (NEES). It includes the three primary energy production and transportation subsystems: electric, natural gas, and coal. In order to facilitate the study of very large-scale disruptions within the NEES, we have developed a multiperiod network flow model able to simulate the movements of bulk energy flows through the network and represent large-scale disruptions on critical infrastructure. This paper describes the model with focus on special features necessary to analyze large-scale disruptions. In order to validate our approach, we have collected disruption data following the 2005 Gulf-coast Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and then incorporated these data into the model. By comparing the results with and without the hurricanes, the additional operational costs as a result of them are estimated to be $10.5 billion from September to December 2005.