Marked Variation of the Association of ESRD Duration Before and After Wait Listing on Kidney Transplant Outcomes

Numerous studies report a strong association between pretransplant end-stage renal disease (ESRD) duration and diminished transplant outcomes. However, cumulative waiting time may reflect distinct phases and processes related to patients' physiological condition as well as pre-existing morbidity and access to care. The relative impact of pre- and postlisting ESRD durations on transplant outcomes is unknown. We examined the impact of these intervals from a national cohort of kidney transplant recipients from 1999 to 2008 (n = 112 249). Primary factors explaining prelisting ESRD duration were insurance and race, while primary factors explaining postlisting ESRD duration were blood type, PRA% and variation between centers. Extended time from ESRD to waitlisting had significant dose-response association with overall graft loss (AHR = 1.26 for deceased donors [DD], AHR = 1.32 for living donors [LD], p values < 0.001). Contrarily, time from waitlisting (after ESRD) to transplantation had negligible effects (p = 0.10[DD], p = 0.57[LD]). There were significant associations between pre- and postlisting ESRD time with posttransplant patient survival, however prelisting time had over sixfold greater effect. Prelisting ESRD time predominately explains the association of waiting time with transplant outcomes suggesting that factors associated with this interval should be prioritized for interventions and allocation policy. The degree to which the effect of prelisting ESRD time is a proxy for comorbid conditions, socioeconomic status or access to care requires further study.