Assimilation of Surface-Based Boundary Layer Profiler Observations during a Cool-Season Weather Event Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment. Part II: Forecast Assessment

被引:34
|
作者
Hartung, Daniel C. [1 ]
Otkin, Jason A.
Petersen, Ralph A.
Turner, David D. [2 ,3 ]
Feltz, Wayne F.
机构
[1] Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Space Sci & Engn, Cooperat Inst Meteorol Satellite Studies, Madison, WI 53706 USA
[2] NOAA, Natl Severe Storms Lab, Norman, OK 73069 USA
[3] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Madison, WI 53706 USA
基金
美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词
OBJECT-BASED VERIFICATION; PRECIPITATION FORECASTS; FACTOR SEPARATION; AIRCRAFT; PREDICTION; NETWORK; IMPACT;
D O I
10.1175/2011MWR3623.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
In this study, atmospheric analyses obtained through assimilation of temperature, water vapor, and wind profiles from a potential network of ground-based remote sensing boundary layer profiling instruments were used to generate short-range ensemble forecasts for each assimilation experiment performed in Part I. Remote sensing systems evaluated during this study include the Doppler wind lidar (DWL), Raman lidar (RAM), microwave radiometer (MWR), and the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI). Overall, the results show that the most accurate forecasts were achieved when mass (temperature and humidity profiles from the RAM, MWR, and/or AERI) and momentum (wind profiles from the DWL) observations were assimilated simultaneously, which is consistent with the main conclusion from Part I. For instance, the improved wind and moisture analyses obtained through assimilation of these observations contributed to more accurate forecasts of moisture flux convergence and the intensity and location of accumulated precipitation (ACPC) due to improved dynamical forcing and mesoscale boundary layer thermodynamic structure. An object-based verification tool was also used to assess the skill of the ACPC forecasts. Overall, total interest values for ACPC matched objects, along with traditional forecast skill statistics like the equitable threat score and critical success index, were most improved in the multisensor assimilation cases.
引用
收藏
页码:2327 / 2346
页数:20
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