Climate change, adaptation, and agricultural output

Recent studies have estimated that climate-generated extreme weather disasters have reduced crop yields globally by up to 10%. By incorporating indicators of adaptive capacity and sensitivity, we develop empirical models of the relationship between extreme weather disasters and agricultural output between 1995 and 2010. Using panel data models, we find that the greater the adaptive capacity of a country, the more attenuated are the expected agricultural losses from extreme weather disasters. In effect, climate-related agricultural consequences vary as a function of the heterogeneity across countries. Much of this heterogeneity in adaptive capacity is a result of policy choices about structural preparedness. Our results allow us to draw inferences about crop yields under different levels of adaptive capacity in the context of climate change.